Defense Policy Analyst: “China’s Arrogance and Belief They Are Next World Power Makes War With US/UK Inevitable and Soon”

Carrier Shi-Lang at Dalian Yards.This 67,500 Ton Kuznetsov-class Vessel, Originally the Ukraine’s Varyag, is Operational Now [November 2010] According to Our Intelligence Sources, Not 2015 as recently reported – Image PLAN

December 13, 2010 (PressReleasePoint) — Washington, D.C. Comments subsequent to an Asia tour this year from a highly respected defense policy analyst who has served in previous administrations, seem to confirm the concerns by several key officials within the US Department of Defense, the UK Ministry of Defence and the crafters of a recently released report by the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC.gov) that China is on a collision course with Western powers extending beyond the reality of its sustained economic war against other countries.

“The arrogance, dismissiveness and disrespect for the US in particular by senior Chinese officials during our visit was not only profound, but deeply disturbing,” said this analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. “China’s current rate of growth is unsustainable, so much so that if it were to continue for the next two decades, another planet earth would be required. Even more alarming is that when presented with clear data supporting this contention, our Chinese colleagues made it obvious that “‘Even if it is necessary to grow beyond our borders, the current initiatives and policies will be maintained.’

“China”, the analyst continued, “is convinced that supplanting the US/UK as the dominant super-power; is within its grasp and will brook no conversations, observations, recommendations or warnings that suggest otherwise. Moreover, the idea that China can be dealt with based on a perception of a melded Confucianism/Shinto/Buddhist ideology-based paternalistic benevolency, is completely without merit. And is indeed, downright dangerous.

Confucian Philosophy Eliminated
“The quiet wisdom advocated by Confucius calling for respect of all others while being defenders of justice, has completely disappeared from China’s philosophy of governance; the victim of the Cultural Revolution initiated by Mao. (Suffice it to say that China 2010 is ideologically the mirror of Communist China 1949.)

“Those who focus only on the potential of doing business within an explosive China economy,” he said, “while turning a blind eye to its stunning, ominous, military build-up, may find themselves in a most uncomfortable position as major global firms lose control of their China operations in a manner consistent with Buffett BYD plant confiscations. At the same time, the break out of hostilities against Japan and Taiwan is a distinct near to mid-term possibility.”

The analyst’s observations are well supported by learned others:

In his opening statement, [United States-China Economic and Security Review] Commission Chairman Dan Slane said “The 2010 Annual Report (released 17 November) reflects the Commission’s conclusions that China has failed in some notable areas to fulfill the promises it made nine years ago when it joined the World Trade Organization. Specifically, China is adopting a highly discriminatory policy of favoring domestic producers over foreign manufacturers. Under the guise of fostering “indigenous innovation” in its economy, the government of China appears determined to exclude foreigners from bidding on government contracts… In addition, China has proposed that its many state-owned corporations be exempt from WTO rules on procurement. The Chinese government quite simply intends to wall off a majority of its economy from international competition.”

In her opening statement, Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew commented on China’s military modernization, saying “As a result of China’s improved offensive air and missile capabilities, the Chinese military has strengthened its capacity to threaten U.S. forces and bases in the region. Currently, China’s conventional missile capabilities alone may be sufficient to temporarily knock out five of the six U.S. air bases in East Asia. Saturation missile strikes could destroy U.S. air defenses, runways, parked aircraft, and fuel and maintenance facilities. Complicating this scenario is the future deployment of China’s anti-ship ballistic missile, which could hold U.S. aircraft carriers at bay outside their normal operating range.”

Western Companies Warned
The analyst further advised that “Western companies, inclusive of GM, Ford, VW, Boeing and Airbus, with significant investment in China-based manufacturing infrastructure and the proprietary processes PRC officials have demanded as a requirement to do business in the world’s most populous country, should thoroughly examine — Japanese companies have already done so — their exit and loss prevention strategies… now.”
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About eMOTION! REPORTS.com:
eMOTION! REPORTS.com (http://emotionreports.com http://emotionreportscom.blogspot.com/) is an automotive/aerospace industries research and analysis site targeting professionals within the academic, media, corporate and government sectors. The site also created a pathway through which white papers and other scholarly works such as “Crisis On Asimov: A Vision of 2085” by national security strategist Dr. Sheila Ronis; “Quantum Parallel: The Saint-Hilaire Quasiturbine as the Basis For Simultaneous Paradigm Shift in Vehicle Propulsion Systems” and “Super-Globalism: Strategies For Maintaining a Robust Industrial Base Through Technological, Policy and Process Improvement”, could be presented to a broadened yet specific audience.

Publisher Myron D. Stokes is an award winning veteran automotive/aerospace industry analyst and spent several years as an industry correspondent for Newsweek, Newsweek Japan and Newsweek International. His.work as an journalist with special emphasis on business and technology has been published in a variety of other major print mediums including the Detroit News, Changing Times Magazine, Auto Week and corporate publications. Over the years, he has provided major corporations and media groups with “deep background” analyses that have helped shape the direction of some of the most significant news stories and industry strategies After outlining a strategy to expand industry coverage for Newsweek Magazine in November of 1991, he worked in the capacity of industry correspondent and investigative reporter. His reporting included in-depth assessments of the “shake- up” at GM, the much publicized industrial espionage charges against former GM supplier executive Dr. Ignacio Lopez; the hazards of doing business in China; the viability of Electric Vehicles which centered on advanced battery technology in both the private sector and military (Newsweek International edition); the difficulties then facing Japan’s auto industry and the comeback of the Big Three (Newsweek Japan).

In recent years, he has covered some of the most recognized stories in automotive, aerospace and general interest. These include the Kirk Kerkorian Chrysler takeover attempt; the GM C/K truck controversy; the U.S./Japan trade issue (Newsweek Japan) which required significant interaction with then Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown;data for Newsweek cover story (4/95) on Airline Safety; investigative analysis of possible collusion between the warring governments of Bosnia President Alijah Izetbegovich and Serbia President Slobodan Milosevic along with uncovering of plan to re-implement ethnic cleansing prior to Srebednicza massacre (6/95); and the Oklahoma City bombing. His ability to thoroughly and accurately report and analyze issues of substance garnered himself and former Newsweek Detroit Bureau Chief Frank Washington first place in the coveted Detroit Press Club International Golden Wheel Award for Automotive Journalism in 1995. This competition, judged by professors from the University of Nebraska School of Journalism, included entries from 110 journalists in five countries. Business Week took second place. Stokes was also privileged to function as acting Detroit Bureau Chief for Newsweek.

Stokes maintains strong interest in global affairs, and continues to be involved in a range of nation building and humanitarian/disaster relief efforts. Among these were acting as initial intercessor between UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and the then warring governments of Eritrea and Ethiopia; an activity which helped lead to the cessation of hostilities in October 1999; the coordination of relief activities with US, European and Middle-East based colleagues subsequent to the Bam, Iran, earthquake of 2004, the Pakistan earthquake of 2005, and co-structuring of academic and industrio/economic base developmental programs with colleagues in Pakistan and India.

Associate Publisher, Motorsports Editor, John T. Chuhran has covered motorsports as an award-winning journalist for more than a quarter century. From 1992-94 he served as Director, Media Relations and primary spokesman for Championship Auto Racing Teams, Inc. (CART) the governing body for the PPG Indy Car World Series. For more than two decades he has been a sports writer and editor for such media as The Philadelphia Bulletin, Gannett Westchester (NY) Newspapers, the Bridgewater (NJ) Courier-News, the Associated Press, United Press International, BBC Radio and the Reuters News Service. He has served as communications Manager (Product), Press Fleet Supervisor and Press Information Specialist of Mercedes-Benz North America where he was responsible for all motorsports and professional sports activities of the company. He also has been the primary media professional at a selective New York City investor relations firm where he optimized media exposure for several companies that launched IPOs and Secondary Offerings. During this time, he was also the de facto Media Relations executive responsible for all media activities of the Professional Sports Car Racing series (now known as IMSA) during the ownership of Andrew Evans. Currently, Mr. Chuhran manages the media centers at several NASCAR racetracks during event weekends, and he maintains extremely positive relationships with the motorsports media. He also continues to write as a contributing editor for motorsports outlets such as The Star (Mercedes-Benz) magazine.

As a primary result of analytical accuracy and depth of content, ER yields notable Google search responses to quasi-generic terms such as “2010 Automotive Industry Analysis” (6,9 and 10 of 94,500,000 returns 12/13/10). Now approaching a decade of existence, The eMOTION! REPORTS.com global team includes some of the most capable journalists and analysts drawn from media, government and academia.

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Boeing Long Beach Production Plant Layoffs Looming, Global HeavyLift Holdings Again Pushes 120+ C-17s For 2012-2020 DoD Budgets Via “Transformational Recapitalization” Strategy

Chinese Carrier Shi-Lang at Dalian Yards.This 67,500 Ton Kuznetsov-class Vessel, Originally the Ukraine’s Varyag, is Operational Now (as reported by ER in November 2010) According to Our Intelligence Sources, Not 2015 as recently reported – Image: PLAN

Chicago, IL January 21, 2011 (PressReleasePoint) — In another addendum to its September 02, 2009, June 25, May 31, 2009 and 2007/2006 press releases, Global HeavyLift Holdings, a Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) listed (www.ccr.gov) entity with principal offices in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, is clearly indicating that continued C-17 production, now being scaled back by Boeing, is inextricably linked to its business strategies. Principals also believe funding for this superlative airlifter is not the issue; rather, it’s the process.

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“Budgetary constraints, with due respect, exist only in the minds of those in the public and private sector who are at best disingenuous in their claims of continuing attempts to rein in spending. A true and viable solution exists that will forever change Department of Defense acquisition processes, and it’s designated Transformational Recapitalization,” says Myron D. Stokes, Managing Member.

“As described by national security strategist Dr. Sheila R. Ronis, Director, MBA/MSSL Programs and Associate Professor, Management, Walsh College, in a November 2004 Defense AT&L analysis “Transformational Recapitalization: Rethinking USAF Procurement Philosophies”, it is a financial management approach that is Einsteinian in its simplicity:

(Excerpt from Defense AT&L November/December 2004)

How the Strategy Works

“‘To illustrate, let’s apply this strategy to a fictitious Air Force need for a fleet of 300 aircraft. Instead of producing them at a very efficient rate of 75 per year for four years, produce them at a reasonably efficient rate of 20 per year for 15 years. Every four or five years, incorporate a technology spiral upgrade to new aircraft coming off the production line; however, do not retrofit existing aircraft. Near the end of the 15-year production, begin selling the oldest, less capable aircraft while they still have at least half their useful life remaining. Then, instead of closing the production line, continue producing new aircraft to replace those sold.

“‘Theoretically, the production line can continue indefinitely until either technology or requirements drive the need to produce an entirely new platform or when demand for the used aircraft dries up.

“‘Although the unit price of each aircraft may be slightly higher, the lower production rate combined with used aircraft sales revenue should decrease overall cash flow and provide much-needed stability to the budget and our industrial base. In addition, this strategy not only facilitates spiral development, but also ensures that the U.S. military flies the most capable aircraft while avoiding maintenance and operating costs for aging aircraft.

“‘For the 10-year-old (now 15) C-17, now is the time to start selling older less capable craft and continue production of new ones for the Air Force. As the last major aircraft production line in southern California, it would be devastating to lose that industrial capacity in 2008 (now 2011) when the 180th (226th approx.) aircraft is finished. Reducing the rate to 12 per year and selling off older inventory would not only allow the production line to continue for another 10 years, but applying the resale value and avoiding upgrade modifications would significantly reduce the cost of increasing the capacity of the fleet.

“‘The C-17 also provides an additional incentive in that not only will FMS customers line up to buy a reduced-price, used C-17, but this aircraft has commercial potential as well. Recent studies completed by the Air Force indicate a market for 60 or more commercial C-17s. The problem is that the high cost of a new aircraft is too risky for a new business venture. The cost of a used aircraft, however, should be low enough to offset that risk. But the most compelling aspect of commercial C-17s is that the aircraft would still be available to meet our total mobility requirement as part of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF).This concept not only satisfies DoD’s desire to rely more heavily on the CRAF, but also lowers Air Force aircraft acquisition cost while increasing capacity to meet wartime requirements.’” http://www.dau.mil/pubs/dam/11_12_2004/rons-nd04.p… (full analysis)

Force Transformation A Critical Priority

According to Stokes, the late Vice-Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski, Director of Force Transformation, Office of The Secretary of Defense (Rumsfeld), articulated this position brilliantly, as is evident, some agree, in the various papers he authored. Case in point:

“‘There are many different definitions being bantered about in government, in Congress and in the public over what specifically does transformation mean? What is it really all about? What is the process for getting there? Some say it is about injecting new technology into the military. Others believe transformation is about new ways of buying weapon systems. Still others hold that transformation is about the wholesale change of organizations. Frankly, I don’t care which one is used so long as any transformation process contains certain key, immutable elements.

“’Transformation is foremost a continuing process. It does not have an end point. Transformation is meant to create or anticipate the future. Transformation is meant to deal with the co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations and technology. Change in any one of these areas necessitates change in all. Transformation is meant to create new competitive areas and new competencies. Transformation is meant to identify, leverage and even create new underlying principles for the way things are done. Transformation is meant to identify and leverage new sources of power. The overall objective of these changes is simply—sustained American competitive advantage in warfare.’” – VADM (Ret’d) A. Cebrowski

011711af_J20_blog5_287.jpg

The Roll-out, Taxi and Flight Tests This Month of China’s Gen5 J-20 Stealth Fighter, Confirms Theft-of-Plans Data Contained Within an Analysis “The Defense Industrial Base: Issues to be Considered and Recommendations”, Crafted by National Security Strategist Dr. Sheila Ronis for a Government Entity in September 2006 (http://www.slideshare.net/GHHLLC2/ronis-scenario1-2-06a-sans-pw ;2007 vers.). It was Provided to Attendees of a Defense Policy Presentation on April 30, 2008 at The Hudson Institution, and Then Published in the Book “Project for National Security Reform (PNSR): Vision Working Group Report and Scenarios”; Jointly Presented With The US Army’s Center For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) During a Washington, D.C., Conference on July 30, 2010 – Image: AirForceTimes

In light of such observations, Dr. Ronis, who is also an Issue Team Leader within the Project on National Security Reform (http://www.PNSR.org) contends “It is important to understand that force transformation, in any of its forms, is not to be viewed as just scholarly defense seminar rhetoric, but a critical element of continuously evolving national security policy.”

“Be Anywhere, In an Hour”

In the opinion of several colleagues, Stokes further states, “Transformational Recapitalization, as an implied element of the Cebrowski security postulations, can and should be implemented now to ensure that this country’s ability to project significant force, or respond adequately to humanitarian/disaster relief missions, as C-17 is so very capable of doing, is maintained. Indeed, a capability, ideally, to ‘be anywhere, in an hour’ in response to wide ranging conflict scenarios, inclusive of a China confrontation.”

c17.jpg

McMurdo Station Scientists Embark C-17 Image: US AirForce

A Ten-Fold Increase in C-17 Production Without Breaking The Bank

Stokes notes that application of one iteration of the Trans Recap process – Congressionally approved USAF sell-off of first generation C-17As to the private sector; i.e., Global HeavyLift, and subsequently, by a change of law, using the funds generated by this activity (estimated 90M-140M per aircraft applied against 200M new aircraft) to buy more Globemasters, thus keeping the production and supply lines open for at least the next decade — is strategically and financially important to the implementing of the blueprint for a US/NATO-controlled Heavy and Outsized (H&O) industry using very modestly modified commercial variants of this airlifter.

“Using both Trans-Recap methodologies outlined here; i.e., continuous, lower volume production and resale of aircraft to both FMS and private sector customers, multi-year, Congressionally approved contracts become part of the DoD acquisition DNA. In this way, the current request for continued C-17 production can increase 10-fold to 120 aircraft,” Stokes said. “Aircraft, by the way, that given current and projected levels of operation, are needed, and no substantive data available can state otherwise.

“Lastly, we reiterate our position as first publicly stated in 2006: Attempts to discontinue critically needed C-17s, the only airlifter in existence truly capable of transitioning seamlessly between the airlift missions required as a result of asymmetric and conventional conflict realities existing concomitantly, are designed to make the world safe for Cold Warrior REAMP-RERP Lockheed-Martin C-5Ms and the yet-to-be-operational Airbus-EADS A400M turboprop.”

Stokes further advises that new developments in Global HeavyLift’s quest to establish a US/NATO-controlled Heavy and Outsized air cargo industry, along with accelerated plans for permanent air augmentation of the industrial base global supply chain, will be announced in coming weeks.

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http://www.pressreleasepoint.com/global-heavylift-holdings-pushes-120-boeing-c17s-20122020-dod-budgets-quottransformational-recapital

Previous Releases:
http://www.pressreleasepoint.com/defense-policy-an…

http://www.pressrelease365.com/pr/industry/aerospa…

http://www.pressrelease365.com/pr/industry/aerospace/aegis-pnsr-defense-global-supply-chain-boeing-3506.htm

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/02-08-2006/0004277666&EDATE=
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About Global HeavyLift Holdings

Founded in 2002, GHH is a strategic air transport solutions entity that was born of a multi-year public/private effort among forward thinkers in both the private sector and government to mitigate emerging and observable vulnerabilities in the U.S. industrial base global supply chain. Such vulnerabilities are represented by the fact that no ocean-borne shipping is in U.S. hands at present, thus potentially subjecting American corporations, especially automotive, and their global operations to the whims and perhaps economically hostile activities of and by foreign governments. Add to this the risk of terrorist activities, which have, according to the Department of Homeland Security, targeted maritime operations; i.e., ships, ports and ocean containers.

Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) listed, (http://www.ccr.gov/) it is the goal of GHH and its strategic partners around the planet to work with key logistics personnel within these corporations and government agencies to conceptualize, craft and structure long-term global supply chain alternative transportation methodologies through continuous — not stop gap or emergency — air augmentation solutions. Its most important mission, however, has been in the co-development of global architecture for infrastructure of a new American controlled industry, Heavylift, utilizing the excellent airlift performance characteristics of the Boeing BC-17.
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